Hong Kong Wenhui News (Reporter Yan Jianle) premier Li Keqiang mentioned at a press conference yesterday that China's economic fundamentals are good and its financial operations are sound, so it has the ability to prevent risks and systemic financial risks. In this regard, Yao Sheng, senior economic economist of AXA Investment Management, said at a press conference yesterday that Liu He was appointed as the vice premier of the State Council, responsible for overseeing financial policies, and that Yi Gang was elected as the president of the people's Bank of China, because it means " The policy of financial de-leverage will continue, which will help China's economy continue to upgrade and transformtechnology commercialization.
Liu He Yi Gang "Receives the stick"
Yao Yuan said that Liu He has been the director of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group Office, and Yi Gang has served as the deputy governor of the people's Bank of China for more than 10 years. He is very familiar with China's economic development. Therefore, they have "taken the stick" and continue to promote economic reform. The number of short-term economic growth will shift to paying attention to risk management and improving the quality of economic growth. The success rate of economic transformation in the Mainland will be relatively high. He believes that the Chinese economy will eventually have a great chance of "soft land".
China and the United States are expected to launch a comprehensive trade war
In addition, Li Keqiang said yesterday that the Sino-US trade war is not good for both sides and there is no winner. When talking about this topic, Yao Yuan believes that the chances of a comprehensive trade war between China and the United States are not great, because if Trump does this, it will be "equivalent to political suicide." He explained that if a comprehensive trade war breaks out between China and the United States, it will be both loses: American consumers will suffer from trade wars pushing up prices, harming US domestic demand and economic growth, and more likely to further weaken American support for the Trump administration. .
In addition, Yao Yuan believes that China has made concessions on Sino-US economic and trade relations, such as relaxing restrictions on foreign investment in the financial industry. Li Keqiang also said yesterday that the Chinese economy has been deeply integrated into the world economy, and the door to openness is growing. Therefore, he believes that the Trump administration has no strong reason to respond to the goodwill of the Chinese government with a comprehensive trade warnu skin.
He believes that Trump’s threat to launch a trade war is only to gain political support, so that the Republican party to which he belongs will maintain the advantage of expanding the seats in the mid-term congressional elections held at the end of this year. At the same time, this is the negotiation strategy of the Trump administration. This has led the United States to renegotiate trade agreements with other countries (such as the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada), and to obtain a more favorable negotiation position, so that the United States can reduce its huge trade deficit. Therefore, it is inferred that there is little chance of a comprehensive trade war between China and the United States.
Overseas investors' pessimistic improvement
Yao Yuan also said that economic reforms in the Mainland and the gradual liberalization of finance will drive foreign capital into the mainland. Since the economic growth in the Mainland has rebounded last year, many foreign investors have improved their pessimism in the Mainland from the pessimism of the previous year. On the other hand, the inclusion of A-shares in the middle of the year in MSCI is also an important factor in promoting overseas capital inflows. In the future, if A shares are fully included in the MSCI sub-index, it is expected to bring in $380 billion in capital inflows to the mainland, which will help improve and reverse the capital outflowcbbc.
Original address: http://paper.wenweipo.com/2018/03/21/BN1803210001.htm